Weekly roundup: top rideshare news (Feb 2025)

Uber's Q4 earnings beat, with a caveat

Uber reported Q4 2024 earnings on February 13, 2025, beating analyst expectations on revenue ($11.0B vs. $10.6B expected) but missing on gross bookings. Rideshare revenue grew 18% year-over-year, delivery 12%. The stock jumped 6% on the news. The caveat drivers should care about: driver supply is at an all-time high (8.4 million active drivers globally), which Uber credited with 'cost discipline' — meaning more drivers chasing the same rides, which puts downward pressure on per-driver earnings.

The earnings call included the now-familiar CEO quote about 'investing in driver earnings,' but the actual data showed average driver earnings per hour flat to slightly down in the US. Uber attributes this to driver oversupply and increased competition; drivers attribute it to base pay cuts. The truth is probably both. Expect per-driver earnings pressure to continue through 2025 as supply outstrips demand growth.

New York TLC plate cap extended through 2026

The New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission voted February 11 to extend the cap on new for-hire vehicle licenses (the 'plate cap') through November 2026. The cap, originally imposed in 2018 to address congestion and driver oversupply, limits the number of high-volume for-hire licenses (Uber/Lyft vehicles) to 80,000. The extension was expected but opposed by Uber and Lyft, who argue the cap raises prices and wait times for passengers in outer boroughs.

For drivers, the cap extension has two effects. First, the value of an existing TLC plate holds up — a used TLC-licensed vehicle commands a $5,000-$8,000 premium over an identical non-TLC vehicle, and that premium will persist through 2026. Second, new entrants to the NYC rideshare market face a higher barrier (you can't just buy a car and start driving; you need to lease or buy a plated vehicle). This protects incumbent drivers but limits new supply, which keeps per-driver earnings higher than in un-capped markets. See our deep dive on the plate cap elsewhere this week.

The NYC plate cap is the single most driver-favorable regulation in the US. It caps supply, which props up per-driver earnings. Every other market is a race to the bottom; NYC isn't.

DoorDash's new merchant fee structure

DoorDash announced February 6 a revised merchant commission structure that, starting in March 2025, will charge restaurants a flat 15% commission on all orders (down from the prior tiered structure ranging from 15% to 30% depending on the merchant's marketing package). On the surface, this is a win for restaurants. The catch for dashers: DoorDash explicitly said the simplified commission will 'stabilize' what it pays drivers, which is corporate-speak for 'we're not raising base pay.'

The market read this as DoorDash protecting margins ahead of its own Q4 earnings (out February 27). For dashers, the practical effect is that base pay is unlikely to increase in 2025 despite the new dynamic base pay formula rolled out in February (see our deep dive). DoorDash's strategy appears to be: simplify merchant pricing to defend restaurant market share, hold the line on driver pay, and let the new 'effort' pay component absorb any regulatory pressure. Whether that's sustainable depends on whether drivers stay on the platform at flat real pay — early 2025 dasher retention numbers will tell.

California court ruling on Prop 22 (and what it means)

On February 10, a California appellate court issued a ruling in the ongoing Prop 22 litigation, upholding most of the 2020 ballot measure but striking down two specific provisions: the restriction on drivers' collective bargaining and the requirement that any legislative amendments require a 7/8 supermajority. The ruling keeps gig drivers as independent contractors under Prop 22's framework but opens the door to legislative amendments by simple majority and preserves workers' rights to organize on certain issues.

For drivers, the immediate effect is minimal — classification status is unchanged. The longer-term effect is significant: the California legislature can now amend Prop 22 with a simple majority, which means driver-favorable changes (healthcare contributions, mileage-based earnings guarantees, paid time off) are politically feasible for the first time since 2020. Expect a legislative push in 2025-2026. The gig companies will spend heavily to defeat it; the 2024 elections shifted the legislature slightly toward labor, so the outcome is uncertain.

Lyft's new insurance partnership and what drivers pay

Lyft announced February 4 a partnership with a major insurer to offer drivers optional 'gap' coverage during periods when the app is on but no ride is accepted (Period 1, the insurance gap that's caused endless litigation). The coverage will cost drivers an estimated $0.08-$0.12 per mile, deducted from earnings, and will cover liability and collision during Period 1. This is a real improvement — Period 1 has been the single most litigated insurance issue in rideshare — but it's optional and deducted from driver pay, so the net effect on driver earnings is slightly negative for drivers who opt in.

The bigger story is that Lyft is moving toward an opt-in insurance model where drivers bear more of the cost in exchange for better coverage, while Uber continues to include insurance in its platform fee. Expect this to be a competitive differentiator — drivers in high-risk markets (urban, high-accident) will favor Lyft's better Period 1 coverage; drivers in low-risk markets will favor Uber's all-inclusive pricing. Watch for Uber to respond.

What we're watching next week

Three things to track. DoorDash's Q4 earnings on February 27 — watch for any commentary on driver pay and retention. The California legislature's response to the Prop 22 ruling — first bills could appear as early as March. And the Austin and Phoenix city councils both have rideshare-minimum-wage ordinances on the February 25 docket; passage in either city would add to the patchwork of local wage mandates that's defining 2025 gig regulation.

That's the week. If you only read one thing, make it the NYC plate cap story — it's the rare bit of regulation that actually helps drivers, and the mechanics are worth understanding. Until next Friday, drive safe, track your miles, and decline the bad trips.